Proverbial

The bulk of Brazil’s military history involves skirmishes with its southern neighbors, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay (not to mention its own population). By the start of this century, though, the majority of the armed forces was steadily transferred to the Northwest, to patrol the Amazon border, especially the 1,000+ miles of forest separating it from Colombia, its guerrillas and drug traffic.

For the same reasons, it’s really not unusual for Colombia to venture into the forest and end up trespassing into neighboring countries. In 1998, its troops had to invade a Brazilian military base in the region when maneuvering around a FARC camp. Sometimes, as in that case, governments will act as though nothing happened, other times they’ll yell and take their ambassadors out of Bogota, in order to save face. After all the commotion dies down, everything returns to normal.

Which is why the current “crisis”, ignited after the killing of a high-level FARC leader by Colombian forces on the Ecuadorian border, should usually be taken lightly. The difference, this time, is that goon Hugo Chávez trying to turn this into something about him.

The current resurgence of FARC’s presence in the media can easily be explained by its ever more declining popularity among the Colombian people. While president Uribe has an approval rate of 81% (.br), making him the most popular leader in South America, the guerrilla has suffered several military drawbacks in recent years, not to mention the large number of defections from its ranks.

With an aging leadership - Manuel Marulanda is bordering on 80 years of age, and allegedly dying of prostate cancer -, increasing international pressure for the release of high-profile hostages such as Ingrid Betancourt, and showing signs of internal disorganization - like promising to release a hostage’s son, only for the press to find out he had been in an orphanage for two years -, it’s been getting harder and harder for the guerrilla to garner popular support for its kidnappings and ties to the drug trafficking.

For the same reason, it should be hard for Ecuador’s president to complain too much about Colombia’s foray into its territory to kill Reyes and other 16 rebels. Sending troops to the border is, at the same time, a move that’s sure to look good with the country’s population, and inoccuous enough for president Uribe to think he still got a good deal out of it. But when Mr. Hugo Chávez decides to also send troops to Venezuela’s border (a helpful map can be found here) and withdraw its ambassador from Bogota, while saying that the Colombian military and their US-backed troops may “trigger war in South America“, things look a little more complicated.

Suddenly, you have Colombia filing a UN complaint against Ecuador and Venezuela for shielding rebels, saying the guerrilla had plans to build a dirty bomb and that it has documents showing the Venezuelan government gave over U$ 300 million to the guerrilla. Brazil, after condemning the attack, was quick to show up as a mediator in the conflict, but already you have the usual suspects accusing the country of secretly sending guns to FARC rebels.

After all this bragging and shaking of fists, though, everyone in their right minds seems to agree that nothing will come out of it. President Uribe already said he won’t return his neighbors’ kindness, and will keep the troops where they are, while the country’s leftist groups already are calling for calm from everyone involved. Mr. Chávez, as many have said, is anything but an idiot, and is most likely only doing this as another stunt to keep on the good side of the military. And Ecuador is sure to regret in due time the decision to offer safe haven for rebels fleeing from Colombia.

In the end, it’s just business as usual in South America.

P.S.: just to make it clear, I don’t condone Uribe’s actions in any way. Even if all the accusations of involvement between the governments of Venezuela and Ecuador with the FARC are true, Colombia should still have exhausted all diplomatic options before performing some sort of military attack on another nation. Just as diplomacy is the only way for the crisis to be properly solved.